Oscars Prop Bets: The Best Longshots to Target

Every year that I use a version by Harvard grad and baseball analyst Ben Zauzmer that’s submitted in The Hollywood Reporter to win, nay, crush a hometown Oscars pool.
But holding bragging rights over your friends isn’t near as entertaining as taking an offshore sportsbook to the cleaners, so I thought, why not use it to Oscars prop bets? This year I set my sites on using his version to find the most ineffective and exploitable chances.
In comparing the proportions from Zauzmer’s model together with the suggested odds on Bovada, I was able to identify a handful of longshot, contrarian bets offering substantial value due to this favorite, frequently Roma, being overvalued.
It is not likely that a majority of those hit, but at these odds we actually only need to bink you to have a profitable Sunday evening.
All credit belongs to the very sharp Ben Zauzmer, so please follow him on Twitter and test out all of his articles on The Hollywood Reporter (2 & 1 ), where you can see the model’s full results, and his commentary.
And for even more best Oscars prop bets, have a look at my look at the technical classes.
Best Picture
Favorite: Roma (-330)
Finest Bet: BlacKkKlansman (+3000)
Zauzmer’s version gives Roma a 32.6percent to win best picture, which is a far cry from the suggested Bovada likelihood of 76%. The model gives BlacKkKlansman a 17.5percent chance to acquire — a huge discrepancy from Bovada’s 3 percent indicated odds. It might be a longshot, but that’s too much worth to pass upon.
Via Zauzmer:
“ROMA EARNED MAJOR HONORS FROM THE DIRECTORS GUILD AND BAFTAS — GOOD ENOUGH TO VAULT INTO FIRST PLACE, BUT NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO APPROACH 50 PERCENT. SO THERE’S ACTUALLY A BETTER CHANCE THAT ROMA LOSES THAN WINS, BUT IT’S STILL THE MOST LIKELY WINNER AMONG THE EIGHT CONTENDERS.”
Finest Manager Favorite: Alfonso Cuaron (-2000)
Finest Bet: Yorgos Lanthimos (+3300)
The Favourite, starring Emma Stone, might not be getting its proper due. (Picture: Vox)
Similar to Best Picture, there is a massive discrepancy between the way Bovada and Zauzmer are handicapping the race.
Bovada’s implied odds give Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) a 95% likelihood of success, whereas Zauzmer’s version gives him a 65 percent chance. The value can be seen with The Favorite manager, Yorgos Lanthimos, where the model gives a higher opportunity to win (11.6%) compared to Bovada’s implied odds (2.8%).

Read more here: http://healthnfitnessblog.com/nascar-at-phoenix-betting-odds-props-key-stats-to-help-bettors-win-ticketguardian-500-2/

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